Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?

Putin, aged 73, holds firm control over Russia’s personalist authoritarian system following his 2024 reelection and 2020 constitutional amendments that reset term limits, enabling potential service until 2036 with the next presidential vote scheduled for 2030. Trader consensus assigns low probabilities to an exit by late 2026 or mid-2027 due to the absence of designated successors, organized elite opposition, or acute health or political crises. Recent developments include continued direction of military appointments and regional governance amid the Ukraine conflict, preparations for September 2026 State Duma elections dominated by United Russia, and public statements downplaying economic strains. Structural rules requiring the prime minister to serve as interim leader followed by elections within three months further reinforce expectations of continuity barring major unforeseen disruptions.

View this market on Polymarket →