Political Market Report

President

The presidency

The 2028 nominations, the general, and the will-he-won’t-he contracts on the current occupant. Longshot candidate markets price a lot of fantasy — read them as attention, not forecast.

US presidential markets on the move

Prices updated 2 months ago · source: prediction markets, not a sportsbook

Most traded US presidential markets

Prices updated 2 months ago · source: prediction markets, not a sportsbook

All US presidential markets

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116 markets found

Market Platform Type Yes Odds 24h Volume Closes
Will Josh Stein win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 0% +66567 ▲ 0.1 pp $352K Nov 7, 2028
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 0% +66567 flat $253K Nov 7, 2028
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 0% +39900 ▲ 0.1 pp $204K Nov 7, 2028
Trump out as President by August 31? Polymarket Presidential 1% +18082 ▼ 0.1 pp $129K Aug 31, 2026
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor? Polymarket Presidential 1% +14186 ▲ 0.2 pp $67K Aug 18, 2026
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 0% +22122 ▲ 0.1 pp $55K Nov 7, 2028
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 2% +4155 ▼ 0.2 pp $43K Nov 7, 2028
Will Mike Lindell win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Polymarket Presidential 37% +174 ▼ 4.5 pp $39K Aug 11, 2026
Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election? Polymarket Presidential 65% -182 ▲ 6.5 pp $38K Aug 11, 2026
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 3% +3179 flat $32K Nov 7, 2028
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 2% +4445 flat $23K Nov 7, 2028
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 0% +66567 ▼ 0.1 pp $23K Nov 7, 2028
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Polymarket Presidential 12% +703 flat $19K Nov 7, 2028
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Polymarket Presidential 2% +6352 flat $18K Nov 7, 2028
Will James Talarico win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Polymarket Presidential 0% +22122 flat $16K Nov 7, 2028
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 16% +527 ▼ 0.1 pp $14K Nov 7, 2028
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 15% +573 ▼ 0.2 pp $14K Nov 7, 2028
Will David Crowley win Waukesha County in the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary? Polymarket Presidential 2% +6150 ▼ 3.9 pp $10K Aug 11, 2026
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Polymarket Presidential 10% +936 ▼ 0.2 pp $10K Nov 7, 2028
Will David Crowley win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? Polymarket Presidential 5% +2074 ▲ 0.2 pp $9K Aug 11, 2026
Will Francesca Hong win the 2026 Wisconsin Governor Democratic primary election? Polymarket Presidential 96% -2199 ▲ 0.5 pp $8K Aug 11, 2026
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Polymarket Presidential 18% +470 ▼ 0.6 pp $8K Nov 7, 2028
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Polymarket Presidential 22% +362 ▲ 0.2 pp $7K Nov 7, 2028
Trump out as President before 2027? Polymarket Presidential 7% +1438 flat $7K Dec 31, 2026
Will Tom Cotton win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Polymarket Presidential 0% +66567 flat $7K Nov 7, 2028

Presidential races elsewhere

Brazil, France, and everywhere else holding a presidential election. Kept separate so the 2028 boards above stay readable.

Prices updated 2 months ago · source: prediction markets, not a sportsbook

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74 markets found

Market Platform Type Yes Odds 24h Volume Closes
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 0% +66567 ▲ 0.1 pp $142K Oct 4, 2026
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 0% +66567 flat $119K Oct 4, 2026
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 8% +1207 ▲ 0.2 pp $41K Oct 4, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Polymarket Presidential 8% +1233 flat $40K Dec 31, 2026
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 1% +8596 ▼ 0.1 pp $27K Oct 4, 2026
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 64% -174 flat $14K Oct 4, 2026
Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026? Polymarket Presidential 1% +11665 ▼ 0.1 pp $13K Aug 31, 2026
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 27% +267 ▲ 0.1 pp $11K Oct 4, 2026
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 31% +218 ▲ 1.4 pp $10K Apr 30, 2027
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Polymarket Presidential 7% +1438 ▼ 1.0 pp $10K Dec 31, 2026
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 0% +99900 flat $10K Oct 4, 2026
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 0% +66567 flat $7K Apr 30, 2027
Will Hakainde Hichilema win the 2026 Zambian presidential elections? Polymarket Presidential 90% -852 ▼ 2.0 pp $7K Aug 14, 2026
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 0% +66567 flat $6K Apr 30, 2027
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Polymarket Presidential 0% +66567 flat $6K Apr 30, 2027