Will Lisa Demuth win the 2026 Minnesota Governor Republican primary election?

Lisa Demuth leads the Minnesota Republican primary for governor as House speaker with strong fundraising and establishment support, positioning her ahead of Mike Lindell in trader consensus despite recent polls showing a close race. Lindell gained ground after securing Donald Trump’s endorsement and stepping down as MyPillow CEO to focus on the campaign, though questions around his residency have surfaced. Kendall Qualls holds the state party endorsement from the May convention but trails in surveys and remains a distant third. The August 11 primary features high turnout potential among older voters favoring Demuth alongside Lindell’s appeal to younger conservatives, with market pricing reflecting Demuth’s organizational edge and Lindell’s barriers to consolidating support before election day.

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