Will Ben Butler be the Republican nominee for FL-09?

The August 18 Republican primary for Florida’s 9th Congressional District features a crowded field seeking the nomination to challenge incumbent Democrat Darren Soto. A recent Victory Insights poll showed the top contenders statistically tied, with Jorge Martinez, Thomas Chalifoux, and Ben Butler each near 14 percent and Dan Green just behind. Market pricing nevertheless places Butler in a clear lead, reflecting trader assessments of his rural base, sheriff endorsements, and late momentum in a low-turnout primary where ground organization and name recognition often decide outcomes. Chalifoux’s prior nomination and fundraising edge have not translated into comparable market support, while the remaining candidates trail with minimal polling or organizational presence.

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