Will Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf be head of state in Iran end of 2026?

Mojtaba Khamenei holds the leading position in the market following his March 2026 selection by Iran’s Assembly of Experts as Supreme Leader after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes during the 2026 Iran war. This rapid transition, backed by security institutions including the IRGC, reflects trader consensus on continuity in the short term despite traditional clerical resistance to hereditary succession. Ongoing conflict, reported injuries to the new leader, and internal power dynamics among principlists continue to shape probabilities for alternatives like Alireza Arafi or Hassan Khomeini, though no major leadership shifts have occurred since the formal vote.

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