Will the Democratic Party win the IN-03 House seat?

Republican incumbent Marlin Stutzman secured his party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary for Indiana’s 3rd congressional district, defeating challenger Jon Kenworthy and advancing to face Democrat Kelly Thompson, who ran unopposed. The northeast Indiana district, centered on Fort Wayne, has favored Republicans in recent cycles, including Stutzman’s 65% win in 2024. Trader consensus at 93.5% for the Republican nominee reflects the district’s partisan composition, the incumbent’s established name recognition and primary performance, and the absence of a high-profile Democratic contender. Late developments that could narrow this margin include significant national political shifts, a major scandal, or unusually strong Democratic turnout, though historical patterns and the current field suggest limited near-term volatility before the November general election.

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