Trump out as President by August 31?

The near-certain trader consensus on Trump remaining in office through August 31 stems from the high constitutional thresholds required for removal, including two-thirds Senate votes for conviction after House impeachment or invocation of the 25th Amendment with cabinet and congressional majorities. No active impeachment proceedings, special counsel actions, or documented cabinet efforts exist in the narrow window, and historical precedent shows such processes rarely conclude in weeks absent extraordinary bipartisan agreement. Short-term catalysts like scheduled legislative sessions or routine executive activity further reinforce stability. While rapid shifts remain possible through unforeseen health developments, legal rulings, or sudden scandals prompting resignation, these carry low near-term probability given current institutional dynamics and lack of triggering events.

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