Will the Republican Party win the IN-04 House seat?

Incumbent Republican Jim Baird secured his party’s nomination in the May 2026 primary and faces Democrat Drew Cox and independent David Bokash in Indiana’s 4th congressional district general election on November 3. The west-central Indiana district, encompassing Lafayette and surrounding rural and suburban areas, has consistently delivered Republican margins above 20 points in recent cycles, including Baird’s 2024 reelection. With the race rated Solid Republican by forecasters and no competitive polling shifts or major campaign developments reported since the primary, trader consensus reflects the district’s partisan composition, incumbency advantage, and limited Democratic infrastructure. A late scandal, health event affecting Baird, or unanticipated national Democratic surge could alter the outcome, though structural barriers remain substantial.

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