Lee Jae-myung out as president of South Korea in 2026?

Lee Jae-myung took office in June 2025 following the National Assembly’s swift rejection of martial law and Yoon Suk-yeol’s subsequent impeachment, entering with a Democratic Party supermajority that has remained intact. This legislative edge raises the threshold for any impeachment motion to advance to the Constitutional Court, a barrier not currently approached by opposition parties amid routine partisan disputes. Approval ratings have eased from the mid-60s to the mid-40s to low-50s range in recent weeks over housing costs and local-election administration, yet no coordinated legislative push, major scandal, or resignation pressure has materialized. Scheduled budget debates, diplomatic travel, and routine policy implementation through the remainder of 2026 show no structural trigger capable of altering Lee’s position before year-end. Traders therefore assign an overwhelming probability that Lee will complete the calendar year in office.

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