**Ongoing fragility in the October 2025 Gaza ceasefire, part of President Trump’s 20-point plan, stems primarily from stalled Phase 2 implementation centered on Hamas disarmament and Israeli troop withdrawal.**
Negotiations remain deadlocked over sequencing, with Israel refusing withdrawal until Hamas fully disarms and Hamas conditioning further steps on complete Phase 1 execution, including sustained aid flows and reduced Israeli operations. Both sides have accused each other of violations since the truce took effect, including intermittent strikes that have killed over 1,000 Palestinians and a handful of Israeli soldiers.
Hamas’s July 2026 announcement transferring civilian governance to a U.S.-backed technocratic committee without a firm disarmament timeline drew Israeli rejection as insufficient, while recent reports of a potential disarmament framework have not resolved core disputes. Israel now controls roughly 70% of Gaza through expanded outposts. Traders monitor Board of Peace efforts, upcoming diplomatic moves by mediators, and any escalation in strikes or governance shifts that could trigger formal cancellation.