Will Austin Rogers be the FL-02 Republican nominee?

Austin Rogers leads the FL-02 Republican primary market at 67% amid an open-seat contest to replace retiring Rep. Neal Dunn, with Keith Gross at 31.5% and the remaining candidates—including Evan Power, Jim Norton, and several others—trailing sharply. Rogers, a Panama City native and former general counsel to Sen. Rick Scott, has gained ground from a late internal poll showing him narrowly ahead of Gross among likely GOP voters, combined with his local profile and debate emphasis on conservative priorities. Gross maintains a substantial fundraising advantage but has seen his position soften as the August 18 primary approaches and voter attention narrows to the top two. The fragmented field and low shares for minor candidates reflect limited polling visibility and weaker organizational reach in the Panhandle district.

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