Will Anthony Garotinho win the Governor of Rio de Janeiro election?

Eduardo Paes leads the 2026 Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial race with overwhelming trader consensus, reflecting his long record as a two-term mayor who resigned in March 2026 to seek the state executive under the PSD banner. Recent polling shows him ahead by wide margins, supported by established name recognition, administrative continuity, and a fragmented field that includes lower-polling figures such as Wilson Witzel, Anthony Garotinho, and Douglas Ruas. The October 4 first-round vote leaves limited time for opposition consolidation or late developments to narrow the gap, though unforeseen legal rulings, coalition shifts, or turnout surprises among key voter blocs could still alter the trajectory before resolution.

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