Will Republicans win 3 Senate and Governor elections in states won by Kamala?

Republicans face a limited set of opportunities in states carried by Kamala Harris in 2024, with gubernatorial races in New Hampshire and Vermont standing out alongside scattered Senate contests. Incumbent advantages, candidate recruitment, and shifting primary dynamics have kept expectations modest, as seen in recent ratings adjustments from outlets tracking these cycles. Trader consensus splits between two and five wins because several contests remain competitive or unresolved, with polling averages and local factors like turnout patterns still fluid ahead of November. Developments such as candidate withdrawals, endorsement shifts, or late polling movements in battleground subsets of these states could widen the range by clarifying holds versus pickups.

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