Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Massachusetts gubernatorial election by 5%-10%?

Incumbent Democrat Maura Healey maintains a substantial lead in Massachusetts polling averages around 23 points heading into the November 2026 general election, consistent with the state’s strong Democratic tilt and her first-term record. The Republican primary on September 1 features Michael Minogue ahead of Brian Shortsleeve and others in recent surveys, yet no GOP contender has closed the overall gap. Traders price the outcome near even between leading options while distributing probability across Democrat victory margins of 5-25 points, reflecting historical general election results in the state and limited recent shifts from economic or policy developments that could compress or expand the spread before Election Day.

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