Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

Yes44%
American odds+127
24h move▲ 1.6 pp
24h volume$36K
PlatformPolymarket
ClosesAug 11, 2026
Implied probability over time

**The special Republican primary to replace the late Sen. Lindsey Graham on South Carolina’s November ballot remains tightly contested on election day, with Darline Graham Nordone holding a modest lead in trader pricing.** Her position stems from her interim appointment by Gov. Henry McMaster, family name recognition, and President Trump’s endorsement, yet the crowded field of ten candidates—including sitting Reps. Ralph Norman and Russell Fry—has fragmented support among establishment and conservative voters. Early voting totals and recent candidate forums show no decisive breakout, as congressional incumbents draw regional strength while others like Mark Sanford and Mark Lynch poll far behind. A runoff appears probable under state rules, and further separation would likely require stronger turnout data, additional high-profile endorsements, or clear polling shifts among key Republican primary voters before polls close.


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Prices updated 2 months ago · source: prediction markets, not a sportsbook