Will an independent win the Montana Senate race in 2026?

Republican nominee Kurt Alme holds a dominant position in Montana’s open U.S. Senate race, reflecting the state’s longstanding Republican advantage in federal contests and his consolidation of party support after incumbent Steve Daines withdrew and endorsed him ahead of the June primaries. Alme secured the nomination with former President Trump’s backing, while independent Seth Bodnar, backed by former Democratic senator Jon Tester, draws support that splits opposition votes but trails in recent July polling. Democratic nominee Alani Bankhead remains a distant third. Trader consensus aligns with these structural factors and polling trends showing Alme ahead by double digits, with limited movement in the past month as the November general election approaches.

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