Will Francesca Hong win the Wisconsin Democratic Governor primary by at least 30%?

Francesca Hong, the democratic socialist state representative, holds a clear lead in late polls for the August 11 Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial primary after multiple high-profile dropouts narrowed the field. Recent withdrawals by former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes amid allegations and Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez over campaign finance issues shifted support toward Hong, who now polls near 45% against Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley at roughly 15-22%. Crowley’s re-entry with outgoing Gov. Tony Evers’ endorsement and stronger July fundraising have not closed the gap, though his campaign highlights policy contrasts and questions about Hong’s past social media comments. Traders appear to price in a modest Hong victory margin amid high absentee ballot volume and residual uncertainty over how withdrawn candidates’ ballots affect final tallies, with “Other” reflecting the range of plausible outcomes beyond listed buckets.

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