Will Michael Alfonso be the WI-07 Republican nominee?

Yes95%
American odds-1718
24h move▼ 0.5 pp
24h volume$649
PlatformPolymarket
ClosesAug 11, 2026
Implied probability over time

Michael Alfonso holds a commanding lead in the Wisconsin 7th Congressional District Republican primary due to President Trump’s endorsement, substantial fundraising exceeding $1.2 million, and established name recognition tied to his father-in-law, former Representative and current Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy. The open seat, vacated by Representative Tom Tiffany’s gubernatorial bid, favors candidates with strong America First positioning and organizational resources in this solidly Republican district. Recent polling and campaign momentum have reinforced trader consensus around Alfonso despite a late attack ad highlighting family connections and residency questions. Other candidates including Kevin Hermening, Jessi Ebben, Niina Baum, and Don Raihala remain distant. Potential shifts before polls close on August 11 could stem from unusually low turnout or unforeseen last-minute developments affecting voter mobilization.


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Prices updated 2 months ago · source: prediction markets, not a sportsbook