Will Michelle Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil’s presidential runoff?

Lula da Silva, the incumbent president seeking a fourth term, leads first-round polling at 39-44 percent, while Flávio Bolsonaro, the Liberal Party nominee and son of the ineligible former president Jair Bolsonaro, trails at 30-40 percent. Multiple center-right and conservative candidates—including Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos—remain in single digits and show limited consolidation. Recent polls indicate Lula ahead in most simulated runoffs, though some earlier surveys showed tighter margins or ties before Flávio’s support dipped amid reports of financial dealings and family tensions that have since been addressed publicly. The first round is scheduled for October 4, with a potential runoff on October 25; the fragmented opposition field and Lula’s structural advantages as incumbent remain central to current trader assessments of likely runoff pairings.

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