Will Peggy Flanagan win the Minnesota Senate Democratic primary by 15–20%?

The Minnesota Democratic Senate primary on August 11 features a close contest between Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan, backed by the DFL party endorsement and progressive figures including Bernie Sanders, and Rep. Angie Craig, who leads in fundraising and holds support from moderate and establishment-aligned donors. Recent polls show the race within single digits, with results fluctuating between a slight Flanagan edge and a tie or narrow Craig lead in the final surveys. This positioning drives trader focus on sub-10-point margins for either candidate, while the elevated share on “Other” reflects uncertainty over minor candidates or an unexpectedly decisive result. The contest’s ideological split and last-minute polling volatility anchor the current market distribution.

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