Will Ralph Norman place second in first round of the South Carolina Republican Senate special primary?

The South Carolina special Republican primary to fill Lindsey Graham’s Senate seat features a crowded field that has kept second-place positioning fluid ahead of the August 11 first round. Ralph Norman’s established congressional record and endorsements have positioned him as the frontrunner for runner-up status among traders, while Darline Graham Nordone’s Trump endorsement and family name recognition create a narrow path for her to edge ahead. Russell Fry’s regional strength and Mark Sanford’s name ID add further fragmentation, with recent debates highlighting policy overlaps on Trump-aligned priorities and leaving a large undecided share. Low-polling candidates and the compressed timeline limit any single contender’s ability to consolidate support quickly, sustaining tight implied probabilities until primary-day turnout patterns or late developments clarify the top two.

View this market on Polymarket →