Will Russell Fry win the SC Republican Senate special primary by at least 5%

Darline Graham Nordone leads recent polling in the fragmented August 11 special Republican primary field to replace the late Lindsey Graham on the general-election ballot, buoyed by name recognition, her appointment to the seat, and an endorsement from President Trump. The crowded contest includes U.S. Reps. Russell Fry and Ralph Norman, former Gov. Mark Sanford, and Mark Lynch, with surveys showing Graham Nordone in the mid-20s, Norman near 18 percent, and substantial undecided voters. Negative advertising between Graham-aligned groups and Fry has sharpened attacks without producing a clear front-runner. Trader pricing on narrow victory margins and “other” outcomes reflects the high uncertainty over whether any candidate will exceed 30–40 percent or force a runoff, consistent with historical patterns in multi-candidate South Carolina Republican primaries where late shifts among undecideds often decide the result.

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