Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Colorado gubernatorial election by 10%-15%?

Colorado’s open gubernatorial seat, after term-limited Democratic incumbent Jared Polis, features Democrat Phil Weiser and Republican Victor Marx following their June 30, 2026 primaries. Weiser prevailed over Senator Michael Bennet in the Democratic contest while Marx edged out state legislators in the Republican primary. The state’s consistent Democratic lean in recent statewide races, combined with limited GOP success since 2002 for governor, underpins trader consensus favoring a Democratic victory by a wide margin. Uncertainty around the precise victory range persists due to limited post-primary polling, potential turnout variations among suburban and independent voters, and the absence of major late-cycle developments that could compress or expand the spread before November 3.

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