Will the Democrats win the Florida Senate race in 2026?

Republican incumbent Ashley Moody maintains a consistent lead in polling for Florida’s 2026 special Senate election, with recent University of North Florida surveys from July showing her ahead by 8–10 points against Democratic primary contenders Alex Vindman and Angie Nixon. Florida’s partisan lean, demonstrated by Republican presidential margins in recent cycles, combined with Moody’s position as the appointed holder of the seat, has shaped trader consensus reflected in the current market prices. The Democratic primary on August 18 offers limited opportunity to alter the trajectory before the November general election, while forecasts from multiple outlets rate the race Likely Republican. No major developments in the past month have narrowed the gap or shifted the competitive balance.

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