Will the Republican Party candidate win the 2026 Florida gubernatorial election by 9%-12%?

Florida’s 2026 open-seat gubernatorial contest remains tightly contested in trader pricing due to the Republican structural edge in registration and voting history since 1994 offset by polling volatility and voter focus on affordability, housing costs, and property insurance. Republican frontrunner Byron Donalds dominates primary polls ahead of the August 18 vote and holds a modest general-election lead over likely Democratic nominee David Jolly in recent surveys, yet several matchups show single-digit margins that sustain probability on narrower Republican or small Democratic victory ranges. Key variables include turnout among no-party-affiliation voters, the impact of the Republican primary outcome, and any late shifts in statewide economic sentiment before November.

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