Will the Republican Party win the FL-22 House seat?

Florida’s newly redrawn 22nd congressional district, stretching across parts of Broward, Palm Beach, Collier, and other counties, features a Cook Partisan Voting Index of R+4 and delivered a 10-point margin for the Republican presidential nominee in 2024. Redistricting legislation passed in spring 2026 and signed by Governor DeSantis created an open seat with no incumbent, removing any Democratic holdover advantage from prior boundaries. A crowded Republican primary on August 18 features well-funded candidates including Belinda Keiser, Casey Askar, and Michael Carbonara, while Democratic contenders remain less established. Recent polling and fundraising data reflect stronger Republican positioning in the general election environment, supporting the current trader consensus favoring the Republican nominee.

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