Will the Republicans win the Arizona governor race in 2026?

Democratic incumbent Katie Hobbs maintains a clear lead in the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial race, reflected in trader pricing for a Democratic victory. Hobbs secured her nomination unopposed in the July 21 primary, while Republican Congressman Andy Biggs consolidated the GOP side with roughly 74% of the vote against David Schweikert. Recent polls, including an AARP survey from late July, show Hobbs ahead by 8 points in head-to-head matchups, consistent with earlier averages indicating a mid-single-digit edge. Arizona’s recent voting patterns, Hobbs’s incumbency, and campaign dynamics have shaped current positioning ahead of the November 3 general election.

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