Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?

Recent polling has positioned Troy Jackson ahead or statistically tied with incumbent Susan Collins in the November 3, 2026, Maine Senate contest, including surveys from Hart Research and the University of New Hampshire placing the Democrat at 49% to Collins’s 45-46%. Jackson secured the Democratic nomination at the July 25 party convention following Graham Platner’s withdrawal amid allegations, consolidating support as a former state Senate president with strong labor ties in a state carried by Kamala Harris in 2024. Collins seeks a sixth term as the sole Republican senator representing a blue-leaning state, drawing on her seniority and Appropriations Committee role amid questions over turnout and economic messaging. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing incorporates these factors alongside historical patterns for competitive Senate races.

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