Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through September 30?

Recent diplomatic efforts by Qatar and Pakistan are the main driver behind current trader positioning on whether direct Israel-Iran hostilities remain paused. A June memorandum of understanding aimed to end large-scale fighting, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, address Lebanon operations, and set a timeline for nuclear talks, but Iran’s July strikes on commercial vessels prompted resumed U.S. strikes and a temporary collapse of the truce. As of early August, mediators report incremental progress toward restoring the pause and easing Hormuz restrictions, though Iran continues proxy coordination and threats against energy infrastructure. Key near-term variables include compliance with maritime protocols, any new Israeli or Iranian strikes, and outcomes from ongoing bilateral discussions.

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