Will Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 15?

The Islamabad Memorandum signed in mid-June 2026 created a 60-day negotiation window for a final US-Iran accord after the recent conflict, including commitments on the Strait of Hormuz, sanctions relief, and nuclear restraints. Progress has stalled amid reciprocal allegations of violations, including Iranian strikes on shipping, US responses, and disputes over Lebanon and Hezbollah. Iran’s deputy foreign minister announced suspension of MOU commitments in July, citing US breaches, while Washington has described substantive talks as nonexistent and the framework effectively over. The approaching mid-August deadline, ongoing regional frictions, and absence of verified breakthroughs continue to shape trader views on any formal Iranian withdrawal announcement.

View this market on Polymarket →