| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Polymarket |
Other |
44% |
+130 |
▲ 8.0 pp |
$940K |
Sep 16, 2026 |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Polymarket |
Other |
1% |
+18082 |
flat |
$691K |
Sep 16, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Polymarket |
Other |
2% |
+6352 |
▼ 0.4 pp |
$643K |
Sep 16, 2026 |
| Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? |
Polymarket |
Other |
56% |
-125 |
▼ 7.0 pp |
$582K |
Sep 16, 2026 |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? |
Polymarket |
Other |
1% |
+11665 |
▼ 0.1 pp |
$576K |
Sep 16, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15? |
Polymarket |
Other |
0% |
+28471 |
▲ 0.1 pp |
$564K |
Aug 15, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? |
Polymarket |
Other |
3% |
+2799 |
▼ 0.6 pp |
$385K |
Aug 31, 2026 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? |
Polymarket |
Other |
5% |
+2122 |
▼ 1.0 pp |
$194K |
Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? |
Polymarket |
Other |
0% |
+99900 |
▼ 0.7 pp |
$187K |
Aug 11, 2026 |
| Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17? |
Polymarket |
Other |
97% |
-3025 |
▲ 41.8 pp |
$184K |
Sep 17, 2026 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? |
Polymarket |
Other |
7% |
+1438 |
flat |
$102K |
Dec 31, 2026 |
| Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026? |
Polymarket |
Other |
9% |
+1076 |
▲ 1.0 pp |
$90K |
Aug 31, 2026 |
| Will Count Binface win the Clacton by-election? |
Polymarket |
Other |
1% |
+11665 |
flat |
$79K |
Aug 13, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? |
Polymarket |
Other |
47% |
+115 |
▼ 1.0 pp |
$79K |
Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? |
Polymarket |
Other |
0% |
+66567 |
▼ 1.1 pp |
$78K |
Aug 11, 2026 |
| Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? |
Polymarket |
Other |
17% |
+506 |
▲ 1.0 pp |
$76K |
Dec 31, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? |
Polymarket |
Other |
51% |
-102 |
▲ 31.0 pp |
$73K |
Aug 11, 2026 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? |
Polymarket |
Other |
15% |
+590 |
▼ 3.0 pp |
$73K |
Sep 30, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? |
Polymarket |
Other |
4% |
+2497 |
▼ 21.7 pp |
$65K |
Aug 11, 2026 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by September 30? |
Polymarket |
Other |
4% |
+2310 |
▼ 0.6 pp |
$59K |
Sep 30, 2026 |
| Iran invades Kuwait by August 31? |
Polymarket |
Other |
1% |
+6797 |
▼ 0.5 pp |
$55K |
Aug 31, 2026 |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? |
Polymarket |
Other |
26% |
+292 |
▼ 13.5 pp |
$50K |
Aug 20, 2026 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31? |
Polymarket |
Other |
4% |
+2226 |
▲ 0.4 pp |
$48K |
Aug 31, 2026 |
| Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 4 to August 11, 2026? |
Polymarket |
Other |
45% |
+125 |
▼ 4.0 pp |
$47K |
Aug 11, 2026 |
| Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election? |
Polymarket |
Other |
99% |
-13233 |
▲ 0.2 pp |
$46K |
Aug 13, 2026 |