Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 15?

Persistent US-Iran military tensions have kept the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed to commercial traffic since late February 2026, with daily transits at just 2–8 vessels versus a pre-crisis average of 60–73, representing only 3% of normal throughput per IMF PortWatch data. This chokepoint normally handles roughly 20% of global oil and LNG flows, contributing to Brent crude prices near $87–$132 per barrel amid scarcity premiums and elevated war-risk insurance costs. Recent diplomatic efforts, including a June MOU, collapsed amid renewed strikes and blockades, sustaining supply disruptions that also affect fertilizers and refined products. Traders monitor upcoming IMF PortWatch releases and any escalation in FOMC-relevant inflation data or Treasury yield movements tied to energy shocks.

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