Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Recent U.S. economic data and the July FOMC decision have shaped trader views on the September 15-16 meeting. The committee held the federal funds rate at 3.50-3.75 percent by a 9-3 vote, with three dissents favoring a hike amid sticky inflation. June CPI eased to 3.5 percent year-over-year from 4.2 percent, aided by lower energy prices following the U.S.-Iran ceasefire, while core measures remained near 2.6 percent. The July employment report showed net job losses and an unemployment rate of 4.1 percent, highlighting labor-market softening. With the August CPI release due shortly and mixed signals on supply disruptions versus demand, the market consensus assigns the highest probability to no change while pricing a material chance of a 25-basis-point increase.

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