Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Ongoing US-Iran conflict and repeated breakdowns in ceasefires and maritime agreements have kept Strait of Hormuz transits at roughly 3% of pre-2026 levels through early August, with naval blockades, vessel attacks, and elevated war-risk insurance sustaining the disruption. Trader sentiment on the “No” side at 53.5% reflects persistent geopolitical friction and slow diplomatic progress since the June memorandum collapsed in July, balanced against historical patterns where chokepoint reopenings can accelerate once formal security guarantees emerge. Key variables that could shift probabilities include renewed bilateral talks yielding verifiable de-escalation and mine clearance timelines, versus further strikes or sanctions extensions that prolong elevated risk premiums into late 2026.

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