Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?

Yes4%
American odds+2226
24h move▲ 0.4 pp
24h volume$48K
PlatformPolymarket
ClosesAug 31, 2026
Implied probability over time

Houthi threats and actions have sharply reduced commercial transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait since mid-July 2026. Iran-aligned Houthi forces announced a maritime embargo targeting Saudi-linked shipping, followed by missile strikes on oil tankers and warnings that prompted multiple vessels to reroute or turn back. Shipping data showed daily crossings falling to single digits on several days in late July and early August amid broader regional tensions involving Iran, Saudi Arabia, and Red Sea routes. Passage remains open but heavily disrupted, with ongoing risks from deployed missiles and drones. Traders monitor any ceasefire progress, de-escalation signals, or further attacks that could alter effective closure status within resolution windows.


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Prices updated 2 months ago · source: prediction markets, not a sportsbook