Total Internet Blackout in Iran by August 31, 2026?

Yes9%
American odds+1076
24h move▲ 1.0 pp
24h volume$90K
PlatformPolymarket
ClosesAug 31, 2026
Implied probability over time

Following the end of the 2026 Iran war and associated protests, authorities lifted the record 88-day nationwide internet blackout on May 26, 2026, restoring partial global access after traffic had fallen to near zero in late February. Iranian officials have since maintained layered filtering through the National Information Network, with ongoing restrictions on international sites and services, though full connectivity has not returned to pre-crisis levels. Trader sentiment on a future total blackout centers on the absence of fresh escalations with the United States or Israel, the lack of major new protests, and Iran’s established pattern of imposing shutdowns only during acute security crises or domestic unrest. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments in the coming months could alter probabilities if they prompt renewed isolation measures.


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