Yabloko Effectively Banned From 2026 Russian Elections by September 17?

Yes97%
American odds-3025
24h move▲ 41.8 pp
24h volume$184K
PlatformPolymarket
ClosesSep 17, 2026
Implied probability over time

Russia’s Supreme Court ruling on August 10, 2026, removed Yabloko from the September parliamentary ballot after upholding a lawsuit by the pro-Kremlin Rodina party that cited alleged violations of campaigning rules, foreign funding claims, and candidate disqualifications. This decision follows months of documented administrative barriers, including the barring of dozens of Yabloko candidates, fines for members, and restrictions on the party’s anti-war platform. Traders see the compressed timeline to the September 20 vote and limited appeal prospects in Russia’s controlled electoral system as driving the near-certain consensus on an effective ban by the September 17 cutoff. A successful last-minute reversal or procedural reversal could still shift the outcome, though institutional patterns make such changes improbable.


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Prices updated 2 months ago · source: prediction markets, not a sportsbook