Will Strait of Hormuz traffic not return to normal in 2026?

Persistent US-Iran geopolitical tensions and recent attacks on commercial vessels, including the August 8 missile strike near the Strait, underpin the 54.5% market-implied probability of no return to normal traffic in 2026. Traders price in sustained disruptions to the critical oil and LNG corridor—handling roughly 20% of global seaborne crude—following the breakdown of the June memorandum of understanding and minimal transits recorded in early August. Low single-digit to 11% odds for August through December reflect expectations of extended de-escalation timelines, mine clearance needs, and shipping backlogs, with aggregated real-capital bets highlighting uncertainty around any near-term diplomatic breakthrough or security stabilization.

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