Will Yabloko win the second-most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?

KPRF holds an overwhelming market lead for second place in Russia’s September 2026 State Duma elections because of its established regional organizations, historical voter base, and consistent polling presence alongside LDPR as the main contenders behind United Russia. Recent VTsIOM surveys have shown New People briefly leading or tying at around 13 percent, ahead of CPRF and LDPR near 10-11 percent, while other polls such as FOM indicate more even or LDPR-leaning results. Traders appear to discount New People’s recent momentum due to its limited grassroots infrastructure compared with the Communists’ deeper networks, even as Kremlin-managed processes and administrative factors continue to shape outcomes for all systemic opposition parties ahead of the three-day vote.

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