Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?

Russian forces have conducted sustained infiltration operations into Kostyantynivka since late 2025, achieving partial entry into eastern, western, and southern districts by mid-2026 but without consolidating control over the full city as of early August. Official Russian claims of complete capture on July 3 were contradicted by Ukrainian reports of continued clearing operations, geolocated footage of intermixed positions, and independent assessments showing ongoing urban combat. Russian glide bomb strikes have supported incremental advances and disrupted Ukrainian defenses, yet monthly territorial gains remain limited and below prior campaign rates. Ukrainian units continue rotations and strikes against infiltrators, with no confirmed encirclement. The pace of fighting and verification gaps around any full seizure remain central to assessments of near-term outcomes.

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