Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026?

US President Donald Trump’s April 2026 threats to withdraw the United States from NATO, citing European allies’ refusal to assist in reopening the Strait of Hormuz during tensions with Iran, briefly elevated trader attention to alliance stability. Those comments, which labeled NATO a “paper tiger,” followed earlier signals from the administration on burden-sharing and troop posture in Europe. At the July 2026 Ankara summit, however, Trump affirmed continued US membership, and Senate consent requirements under the 2024 National Defense Authorization Act create significant procedural barriers to any unilateral exit. No other member state has advanced formal withdrawal steps, leaving the near-term probability of departure low absent major escalations in transatlantic disputes or new legislative changes.

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