Will Count Binface win 30–40% of votes in the Clacton parliamentary by-election?

Recent polling by Survation places Count Binface at around 20% in the 13 August 2026 Clacton by-election, driven primarily by the decision of Labour, Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Greens to stand aside, concentrating protest and tactical votes behind the novelty candidate. Binface’s high media profile, detailed manifesto pledges targeting the incumbent, and positioning as a unity option have sustained attention ahead of the vote, while the unusually long ballot with dozens of fringe entrants fragments remaining support. Traders price the 10–20% and 20–30% bands highest because historical novelty-candidate results and current surveys cluster near the lower end of that range, with Farage retaining a dominant position that limits upside beyond 30%. No major late developments have altered this baseline.

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