Will AfD win the most seats in 3 German state elections in September 2026?

AfD leads polls by wide margins in the two eastern German states holding September 2026 Landtag elections—Saxony-Anhalt on September 6 and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern on September 20—reflecting sustained regional strength that positions the party to secure the largest seat share in both contests. Recent surveys show AfD at 40–42 percent in Saxony-Anhalt, raising the prospect of an absolute majority if minor parties fall below the 5 percent threshold, while support in Mecklenburg-Vorpommern hovers near 35 percent, ahead of the incumbent SPD. These trends, reinforced by national polling patterns and limited coalition options for other parties, underpin trader consensus around exactly two such outcomes. No other September state elections feature comparable AfD positioning.

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