Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

Yes5%
American odds+2122
24h move▼ 1.0 pp
24h volume$194K
PlatformPolymarket
ClosesDec 31, 2026
Implied probability over time

Recent UAP disclosure efforts under the Trump administration, including the PURSUE program and multiple tranches of declassified records released through August 2026, represent the main catalyst for trader interest. These batches include historical documents, images, and videos from agencies such as the Pentagon, FBI, and CIA, yet contain no official statement affirming extraterrestrial life or technology. Congressional pressure for greater transparency continues alongside rolling releases expected in coming months, but resolution hinges on whether any federal official or agency issues a definitive confirmation by a market-specified date. Current market pricing reflects high uncertainty and significant barriers to such an explicit acknowledgment.


Other markets moving today

Prices updated 2 months ago · source: prediction markets, not a sportsbook