Will Auyl win the second most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?

Auyl holds the strongest trader consensus for second place in Kazakhstan’s August 23 Kurultai election, reflecting its 10.9 percent finish and eight seats in the 2023 parliamentary vote as the leading agrarian party focused on rural and agricultural interests. The new unicameral legislature under the 2026 constitution features proportional representation across 145 seats, with the former ruling Amanat party having merged into the pro-presidential Adilet vehicle expected to secure a majority. No recent polling shifts or major campaign developments have altered this positioning, leaving Aq Jol and Respublica as distant alternatives based on their prior 8-plus percent shares while smaller parties like JSDP remain marginal. The August 23 outcome will test these established party-list dynamics for the first time under the revised framework.

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