Will SPD win 22-25 seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections?

Recent July 2026 polls from Infratest dimap and INSA show the SPD at 28-29% support ahead of the September 20 Landtag election, placing it second behind the AfD at 35-36%. This vote share, combined with the 5% threshold and proportional allocation across roughly 71 seats, points to an SPD total in the low-to-mid 20s. Minister-President Manuela Schwesig’s personal popularity and targeted campaigning on state issues have produced modest SPD gains over prior months, while smaller parties’ weakness narrows coalition options and reinforces the current seat-range consensus among traders.

View this market on Polymarket →