Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

The Iranian regime’s demonstrated resilience through the 2025–2026 conflict with Israel and the United States, followed by domestic protests, underpins the 93.5% trader consensus against collapse before 2027. Official statements and reporting confirm the government maintained control of key institutions, security forces, and economic infrastructure despite leadership losses and infrastructure strains. Elite infighting and economic pressures persist, yet no unified opposition or mass defections have materialized to alter the balance. Historical patterns of regime adaptation during crises further support trader assessments of continuity in the near term.

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