Iran leadership change by August 22?

Iran’s Supreme Leader succession unfolded rapidly after Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s assassination in late February 2026 amid U.S.-Israeli strikes. The Assembly of Experts selected his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March following an interim tripartite council that included President Masoud Pezeshkian. Mojtaba has maintained a low public profile since taking office, with state media confirming limited meetings such as one with Pezeshkian in late July. IRGC commanders have expanded influence in governance, prompting Pezeshkian’s reported resignation offer in May over perceived military dominance. Trader assessments of further leadership shifts now hinge on stability under the new supreme leader, potential additional presidential or institutional changes, and external pressures through the resolution window.

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