Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

California’s Proposition 40, a one-time 5% wealth tax on residents and trusts with net worth above $1 billion as of late 2026, qualified for the November ballot after signature gathering despite vocal opposition from tech billionaires and Governor Gavin Newsom. Trader consensus favoring rejection at 69.5% reflects anticipated legal challenges to its constitutionality and retroactive elements, concerns over billionaire out-migration already documented in analyses, and resistance from business groups highlighting risks to investment and state revenues. Recent polling shows divided but not overwhelming support, while the measure’s funding targets for healthcare and education have not overcome structural barriers typical for high-stakes tax initiatives in the state. Upcoming campaign spending and court filings could still shift dynamics before election day.

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