**Traders assign an 83.5% implied probability to “No” on a U.S. invasion of Iran before 2027 primarily because the 2026 conflict has remained limited to airstrikes, naval actions, and Strait of Hormuz brinkmanship rather than ground operations.**
Following the February–May phase of Operation Epic Fury and subsequent exchanges, U.S. policy under President Trump has emphasized precision strikes, blockades, munitions resupply challenges, and diplomatic tracks—including the June MOU and ongoing Oman-mediated efforts to reopen shipping lanes—while avoiding the logistical, political, and force-protection costs of a full-scale invasion. Recent August 2026 statements highlight continued economic pressure and limited strikes over escalation to ground forces, with both sides signaling interest in de-escalation on maritime access and nuclear issues. The compressed timeline to year-end further reduces the window for such a major shift in posture.